Overcoming the China-US Rivalry: Time for a New Regional Order?

When the Cold War ended almost three decades ago, many believed that bipolar politics had finally ended for good.  However, the world actually became an even more uncertain place; lasting peace was nowhere to be found. And now, as we brace ourselves to weather the escalating trade war between China and the US, there are those who feel that a new Cold War is rapidly in the making.

Many Americans think that preventing China from disrupting the regional order benefits not only the US, but also the rest of the Asia-Pacific region.  Meanwhile, the Chinese believe that they are simply correcting the injustices that have historically been dealt to them by foreign powers.  Therefore, any country that intends to preserve the status quo is seen as perpetuating such injustices.

These geopolitical changes have provided rich grounds for academics and foreign policymakers to generate ideas in the pursuit of global order. Recently, the discourse has focused on the development of an Indo-Pacific cooperation framework. And for its part, Indonesia is pushing for an ASEAN-centric, inclusive Indo-Pacific region that is conducive for peaceful dialogue and multi-field cooperation.

At the same time, it is important that we also keep our minds open to the possibility of other forms of cooperation that could take shape around the world.

In his publication titled The China Choice, Australian Professor Hugh White outlined that there are more than two choices for the US in dealing with China. The first two choices are obvious: to confront the Chinese (as a means to preserve America’s dominance in the region) OR to allow China’s rise (while hoping that the Chinese would refrain from causing conflicts).

Professor White argued that the third choice is for the US to share power with China. Considering that both countries can deny leadership to the other, it is impossible for either China or the US to single-handedly dominate the Asia-Pacific. In other words, the idea of the US maintaining uncontested leadership in the region is as illusory as the fear that China will one day rule over the Asia-Pacific.

Professor White then suggested the possible establishment of a new concert of Asia, which is loosely modeled on the Concert of Europe that existed between 1815 and 1914.  Indeed, the Concert of Europe was far from perfect; conflicts continued to exist during the period, including the war for German unification. The Concert of Europe also ended with the outbreak of World War I. 

Nevertheless, when looking at European inter-state relations during those 99 years, conflicts among major countries were avoided because each of them recognize that they cannot dominate the entire region. During that period as well, Europe experienced massive growths in the economic, social, and political fields.  Such conditions founded Europe’s current influential position in international affairs.

According to Professor White, an Asian version of this concert would have four “great powers”, namely the US, China, Japan, and India, as well as “middle powers” such as South Korea, Australia, and Indonesia.  According to him, the rules of this “Asian Concert” are straightforward:

1. Such great power must accept the legitimacy of the other’s political system.  In other words, the US should cease causing domestic instabilities in China;

1. By agreeing to disagree, each great power must be willing to make concessions in order to achieve resolutions through peaceful negotiations;

1. Each great power must allow others to build up armaments, and allow the use of them if there are forces challenging their status as a great power; and

1. All the powers must be able to develop a “code of conduct” that would “govern” interactions with one another.

Of course, this perspective is not foolproof. Indonesia’s role as a middle power is eclipsed by the “great power politics”. Yet we all know that Indonesia is the largest country and economy in Southeast Asia.

Furthermore, although the Concert of Europe in its time brought peace to the people, the conditions may not be the same in today’s Asia-Pacific.  The Austria, Prussia, Russia and the UK of that old period are different from today’s China, the US, Japan, and India.  And most interestingly, the great powers of the past were never economically inter-linked so closely like today’s influential countries.

Regardless, in striving for an Indo-Pacific regional architecture, it is important that we constantly think outside of the box. This even includes embracing ideas and perspectives that are as brave as Professor White’s.

In dealing with China, we must go beyond the choices of confronting the Chinese head-on OR appeasing their rise to dominance. There must be a more nuanced third, or even fourth choice.  If China keeps on growing, then its economic and political clout would be overwhelming. Therefore, in the interest of most countries in the region—including Indonesia—it is important to “negotiate” a new relationship with China before the power balance further shifts in the Chinese’ way.

Reformasi, Antikorupsi, dan Perkembangan Sepakbola di Tiongkok

Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, banyak pihak yang melihat dengan takjub perkembangan sepakbola di Tiongkok. Saya masih ingat 10 tahun lalu, ketika saya pertama kali tinggal di Beijing, dan sering bermain dengan teman-teman dari Amerika Latin. Di lapangan sebelah tempat kita bermain biasanya juga diisi pemain asing. Tapi sekarang, lapangan bola di Beijing selalu dipenuhi masyarakat lokal. Dan jumlah lapangannya pun telah bertambah berkali lipat.

Belum lagi berita-berita terbaru mengenai pemain-pemain asing yang berkiprah di Chinese Super League. Bahkan tim favorit saya, FC Barcelona pun menemukan Paulinho di Guangzhou Evergrande untuk mengisi kekosongan yang ditinggalkan Neymar Jr. Dan ternyata, Paulinho jauh lebih hebat dari yang diharapkan, walaupun memang sangat sulit menggantikan seorang Neymar Jr. Setidaknya, pembelian Paulinho dari Guangzhou menunjukkan bahwa tingkat permainan di CSL sudah menjadi perhatian tim-tim di Eropa.

 

Nah, dalam artikel ini, saya ingin sedikit berbagi mengenai sepakbola di Tiongkok.

 

Sebagaimana organisasi-organisasi lain di Tiongkok, China Football Association (CFA) berada di bawah kendali pemerintahan. Secara spesifik, CFA berada di bawah naungan State General Administration of Sports, yang di Indonesia setara dengan Kementerian Pemuda dan Olahraga. FIFA mentolerir hal tersebut mengingat bentuk pemerintahan di Tiongkok, di mana segala aspek kehidupan penduduk dikontrol dan diawasi oleh Pemerintah.

 

CSL dibentuk pada tahun 2004 sebagai liga tertinggi sepakbola di Tiongkok untuk menggantikan Jia A League. Pembentukan CSL utamanya dikarenakan kegagalan Tiongkok pada Piala Dunia 2002 di Jepang-Korea, di mana Timnas Tiongkok kalah tiga kali dan tidak menghasilkan satu gol pun sepanjang turnamen.

 

Untuk dapat berpartisipasi dalam CSL, para tim diharuskan mempunyai manajemen yang professional, keuangan yang transparan, dan youth program yang dapat menghasilkan pemain-pemain lokal. Persayaratan-persyaratan ini diharapkan dapat mengangkat kualitas sepakbola di Tiongkok secara umum.

Namun demikian, upaya tersebut tidak membuahkan hasil yang diharapkan karena semakin banyaknya uang yang mengalir ke CSL justru membuat kompetisi semakin diwarnai kasus-kasus korupsi. Korupsi dan sogok-menyogok seringnya dilakukan oleh pejabat-pejabat daerah. Beberapa tindakan ilegal yang merusak citra CSL termasuk:

• Maraknya perjudian, terutama yang dilakukan oleh para pejabat lokal
• Pengaturan skor oleh pemilik klub, terutama untuk menguntungkan pejabat-pejabat lokal
• Sogok-menyogok untuk dapat mengirim pemain klub ke Timnas Tiongkok, yang sering dilakukan oleh pemilik tim lokal guna meningkatkan pamor klub.

Kasus korupsi dan sogok biasanya melibatkan pemain (utamanya para pemain bek dan kiper) atau pelatih. Hal ini dikarenakan gaji pemain dan wasit yang sangat rendah. Pelatih klub biasanya tidak tahu-menahu, dan sering menjadi pihak yang dirugikan karena kelakuan pemain dan wasit.

 

Dampak dari keterpurukan pesepakbolaan di Tiongkok adalah menurunnya interest masyarakat Tiongkok untuk bermain atau menonton sepakbola professional di negara mereka sendiri. Berbagai kegagalan Timnas Tiongkok juga menjadi bahan cemoohan masyarakat, yang tidak percaya bahwa dari 1,3 milyar penduduk Tiongkok tidak dapat dicari 11 orang untuk bermain sepakbola yang kompetitif, setidaknya di Asia.

 

Kondisi yang buruk ini mencapai titik nadir pada tahun 2009, ketika pemain-pemain Qingdao Hailifeng “tidak berhasil” membiarkan lawannya menang lebih dari empat gol. Kegagalan ini dikatakan akhirnya menyebabkan pemilik klub Qingdao Hailifeng rugi judi besar-besaran.

 

Melihat kondisi ini, akhirnya Pemerintah Pusat bertekad untuk memberikan perhatian lebih terhadap CFA dan CSL, dan melakukan reformasi internal yang progresif dan disiplin. Upaya ini secara individu dimulai oleh Presiden Xi Jinping, yang pada waktu itu masih menjabat sebagai Wakil Presiden RRT. Xi Jinping adalah penggemar sepakbola dan telah mengarahlan agar berbagai upaya sejak tahun 2009 dapat mempersiapkan kondisi yang kondusif untuk pengembangan sepakbola di Tiongkok pada saat Xi Jinping nantinya menjadi Presiden RRT.

 

Dengan tekad ini, maka dimulailah kampanye anti-korupsi di CFA dan CSL. Saat berkunjung ke Jerman pada tahun 2009, Xi Jinping mengatakan bahwa sepakbola di Tiongkok harus menjadi sumber kebanggaan nasional. Dua minggu kemudian, 16 pejabat CFA dan CSL serta pemain klub ditangkap polisi karena terbukti menerima atau memberikan sogokan.

 

Kampanye anti-korupsi di tubuh CFA dan CSL berlangsung dari 2009 sampai dengan 2012. Dalam periode tersebut, setidaknya 58 pejabat CFA dan CSL ditangkap dan dijatuhkan hukuman sampai dengan 10 tahun penjara. Beberapa pejabat termasuk dua orang mantan Ketua CFA, beberapa pemain Timnas Tiongkok ternama, dan seorang wasit di Tiongkok yang paling terkenal.

 

Kampanye anti-korupsi dilakukan baik oleh Pemerintah (melalui Kementerian Supervisi) maupun Partai Komunis Tiongkok (PKT). Hal ini dapat dilakukan karena segenap pejabat CFA dan CSL adalah pegawai pemerintahan dan fungsionaris PKT.

 

Sambil dilakukannya kampanye anti-korupsi, Pemerintah RRT juga mendorong partisipasi perusahaan-perusahaan swasta untuk mendanai klub-klub CSL. Perusahaan-perusahaan yang menanggapi dorongan Pemerintah termasuk Alibaba Group (sponsor utama Guangzhou Evergrande FC), Suning (perusahaan peralatan elektronik terbesar di Tiongkok, sponsor utama Jiangsu Sainty FC), dan SIPG (perusahaan manajemen pelabuhan, sponsor utama Shanghai Shanggang FC). 

 

Klub-klub juga melakukan pendekatan kepada masyarakat lokal, termasuk dengan menciptakan merchandising yang bagus, memudahkan pembelian tiket masuk, dan melakukan berbagai program kemasyarakatan. Dukungan para fans lokal menjadi salah satu tumpuan sumber keuangan bagi setiap klub. Secara umum, jumlah fans yang mengunjungi stadion setiap harinya meningkat. Begitu juga dengan jumlah yang menonton pertandingan-pertandingan via tv dari rumah.

 

Setelah menjadi Presiden RRT, Xi Jinping meneruskan niatnya untuk membenahi sepakbola di Tiongkok dengan menjadikan isu ini sebagai salah satu isu yang dibahas pada saat kongres nasional tahun 2013. Dalam pidatonya di hadapan para anggota National People’s Congress (NPC), Presiden Xi manyampaikan bahwa revitalisasi sepakbola di Tiongkok akan menjadikan Tiongkok sebagai negara olahraga yang kuat, yang merupakan bagian inti dari pencapaian China Dream yang dia visikan.

 

Pada tahun 2015, akhirnya NPC mengeluarkan 50-Point Plan terkait dengan revitalisasi sepakbola di Tiongkok. Beberapa target kunci adalah:

• Meningkatkan profesionalitas klub-klub CSL, dengan mendorong partisipasi perusahaan-perusahaan lokal dari berbagai bidang usaha sebagai sponsor klub
• Menciptakan basis yang kuat bagi pengembangan sepakbola dengan memberdayakan organisasi-organisasi sepakbola di tingkat grassroots serta sekolah-sekolah sepakbola
• Meningkatkan jumlah anak-anak di Tiongkok yang bermain sepakbola
• Membuka sekolah-sekolah sepakbola baru, yang jumlahnya diharapkan mencapai 20 ribu pada tahun 2020 dan 50 ribu pada than 2025 (saat ini jumlahnya masih 5 ribu)
• Mengucurkan dana ke sistem pendidikan agar menjadikan sepakbola sebagai salah program kurikulum pendidikan nasional
• Terus meningkatkan program anti-korupsi di CFA dan CSL, yang sejalan dengan kampanye anti-korupsi yang gencar dilakukan di berbagai tingkatan pemerintahan di Tiongkok saat ini
• Menciptakan kondisi yang kondusif untuk menarik kedatangan pemain-pemain dan pelatih-pelatih asing yang berkualitas

Reformasi dan revitalisasi CFA dan CSL juga akan dilakukan dengan secara pelan-pelan menjadikan CFA independen dari Pemerintah (sebagaimana harapan FIFA selama ini). Diharapkan CFA dan CSL nantinya akan diisi dengan professional dan berorientasikan bisnis. Artinya, CSL dan masing-masing klub anggotanya akan di-manage bagaikan perusahaan, dan harus untung secara finansial.

 

Selain itu, Pemerintah RRT juga telah mengundang IMG Worldwide Inc untuk me-manage CSL secara professional. Pemerintah Pusat masih mengawasi CFA dan CSL, tetapi keberadaan pejabat-pejabat pemerintahan dan PKT semakin dikurangi. 

 

Tiga target jangka panjang 50 Point Plan di bidang sepakbola yang diinisiasi Presiden Xi Jinping adalah: 1) membentuk basis yang kokoh bagi pengembangan Timnas Tiongkok yang kompetitif di ajang internasional, dan dapat masuk ke putaran final Piala Dunia; 2) menjadi tuan rumah Piala Dunia; dan 3) menjadi salah satu kandidat juara Piala Dunia

 

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: An Indonesian Perspective

On 22 May 2015, the Embassy of Indonesia in Beijing was invited to participate in One Belt One Road: New Silk Road, New Starting Point for Cooperation and Exchange Seminar, which took place in Xi'an.  

The seminar was organized by the Municipal Governments of Xi'an and Quanzhou, which are the starting points of the Modern Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, respectively.  

The following is the speech that I presented in front of around 400 participants of the seminar, including local and national media people.

Excellencies,

Ladies and gentlemen,

First and foremost, I would like to extend my sincerest appreciation to the Governments of Quanzhou Municipality, and Xi'an Municipality, for kindly inviting the Embassy of Indonesia to participate in this important conference.

Indeed, the invitation extended to our Embassy is a reflection of the high regard given by Chinese Government towards Indonesia, as an important player in efforts to concretely develop the One Belt, One Road initiative. 

Freshly following the visits of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Indonesia and Kazakhstan last month, I sincerely believe that the organizing of this conference is timely. The hope is that we will have frank and fruitful discussions on the values and challenges of the One Belt One Road initiative.

Since the introduction of the One Belt, One Road initiative in 2013, the Chinese Government has vigorously promoted this initiative in bilateral and multilateral forums.  China is also leading efforts to develop supporting institutions and mechanisms, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 

Indeed, China is not only talking the talk, but also walking the walk.

Like many countries in the Asia-Pacific, Indonesia welcomes the One Belt One Road initiative as a contributing step towards building a more connected, more prosperous, and more peaceful region.  As one of the countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, Indonesia recognizes that efforts to strengthen connectivity could directly lead to greater economic prosperity across the region.  

Such a shared interest in developing maritime connectivity can be traced to historical accounts linking Indonesia and China.  We all know of the seven voyages of Admiral Zheng He.  On each of his voyages to the Western Seas, Zheng He and his men spent time in Indonesia, to learn local traditions and introduce the locals to Chinese culture.  Stories of these friendly exchanges are very popular in Indonesia.

Today, as a country made up of over 17 thousand islands, Indonesia knows too well the importance of better maritime connectivity.  While Indonesia may be located strategically between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, without strong connectivity, it would be challenging for us to maximize on our geographic advantage.

We recognize that connectivity provides a basis for better flows of goods, people and services. This would spur business activities stemming from easy access and the development of regional production networks.  Better connectivity will bring products and services closer to consumers. Our aim should be to rid the Asia-Pacific of high-cost economy, and make the region more competitive and cohesive. 

Connectivity will also improve balanced growth and narrow the development gaps existing among countries in the Asia-Pacific.  It will spur more intensive investment cooperation, especially in infrastructure development, thus fostering sustainable and long-term growth.  Therefore, the One Belt One Road initiative must evolve along a win-win path, for both developed and developing countries. 

Excellencies,

Ladies and gentlemen,

President Xi Jinping's state visit to Indonesia in October 2013 marked a new chapter in Indonesia-China relations, as our bilateral cooperation was elevated from "strategic partnership" to "comprehensive strategic partnership".  Moreover, it was during the visit to Jakarta that the idea of a 21^st Century Maritime Silk Road was first introduced to the region.

In November 2014, it was Indonesian President Joko Widodo's turn to further elevate bilateral relations, as China became his first destination abroad since assuming the Indonesian leadership.  President Widodo is committed to deepening and widening bilateral cooperation in various fields, such as infrastructure, connectivity, as well as energy and food security. 

Moreover, President Widodo believes that China's 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is complementary to his vision of Indonesia as a "global maritime fulcrum".  What we want are: improved physical connectivity, better institutional connectivity, and stronger people-to-people connectivity.  With commitment, hard work, and close partnerships with neighboring countries, this is all within our reach. 

China is the biggest economy in Asia, and Indonesia the largest in Southeast Asia.  Together, our two countries should promote togetherness to convert our bilateral ties into a more solid cooperation that benefits not only our two peoples, but also the region as a whole. 

The One Belt One Road initiative could provide a platform for strengthening Indonesia’s maritime infrastructure and transportation. It could stimulate sectors such as ship building, power plants and seaports.  Indonesia could also take advantage of the trade routes opened by China to export its products to areas previously difficult to reach, such as Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Indeed, greater infrastructure investments would benefit Indonesia, as it accelerates the development of the country's internal and external connectivity.  Maritime connectivity also opens opportunities for China to be part of efforts in realizing Indonesia's economic potentials. 

At the same time, because of Indonesia's geographical position and sheer size, these trends would contribute positively towards stronger connectivity in the Asia-Pacific as a whole.

Excellencies,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Trade along the ancient Silk Road and maritime silk route was a significant factor in the development of many civilizations in the region. It opened up China and all the countries along the silk routes, to political and economic interactions, cultural exchanges, and people-to-people connections.

Against this backdrop, it is understandable that many countries have welcomed China's One Belt One Road initiative.  And it is understandable that efforts to implement the initiative has led to the prominent rise of certain Chinese cities, such as Quanzhou and Xi'an.

As a rising power, China’s economic development will continue to bring opportunities to its neighbors. Therefore, its attempts to develop new cooperative mechanisms are commendable. 

At the same time, China must be willing to listen to the rest of the region, especially in maintaining China's image as a friendly neighbor among the Asia-Pacific countries.  Cooperation can only be nurtured within a stable and peaceful environment.

The concept of a modern silk road belt and maritime silk road should not only be symbolic in nature, but also concrete in its implementation. The hope is that our efforts would contribute positively towards further fostering a sense of community, a shared identity, and an integration of interests in the Asia-Pacific.

In this Asian Century, it is in our hands to determine the fate of our peoples and our region as a whole. 

Thank you.

Making a Choice

Book Review

Hugh White, The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power

ISBN: 9781863956093

Recently, the growing rivalry between China and Japan has dominated discussions on Asia-Pacific affairs.  There was China’s announcement on ADIZ, which was then countered by Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine.  With both sides claiming that they are presently experiencing one of the lowest points of their bilateral relations, we in Southeast Asia can only hope that there would be some breakthroughs to bring back confidence and stability to the regional outlook.

Hardcover version

But somehow the growing tensions between China and Japan seem only a reflection of the bigger rivalry existing in the Asia-Pacific (or in the world as a whole): the China-US rivalry.  Yes, Japan is vying for greater influence in international affairs.  And yes, Japan is one of the strongest economies in the world.  But Japan is a US ally, whose security is dependent on this North American hegemon.  And so, when we talk about the China-Japan rivalry within the context of regional peace and security, then it is rather obvious that the US’ hands are deep in this melee.

Many academic and journalistic works have been written, discussed, and undergone criticisms on the US-China rivalry.  Naturally, some are more enlightened than others.  But all of them have been meaningful additions to the pool of knowledge on the study of contemporary Asia-Pacific regional studies.  As a life-long student, I can only appreciate these academic and journalistic works, one of which can be found in The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power.

Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, argues that there are more than two choices for the US in its dealing with the Chinese.  Of course, the first two choices are commonly known: to confront the Chinese (as a means to preserve American dominance over the region) OR to allow China’s rise to dominance in the region (while hoping that China will not have any tendency to cause conflict, particularly with the US). 

In this fantastic book, White elaborates on a third choice for the US, and that is to share power with China.  He argues that both China and the US have every capacity to deny leadership to the other.  However, for one of them to single-handedly, truly dominate the Asia-Pacific, that would almost be impossible. As a result, the idea of the US maintaining uncontested leadership in the region is as illusory as the fear that China will one day be at the top of the Asia-Pacific, alone and unchallenged.

There is Cold War-like belief among many Americans that countries in the Asia-Pacific could somehow be wooed into siding with them.  “An aggressive and hegemonic China would not be good for the region”, they would say, “Thus, justifying any effort to limit China’s power.”  However, the truth is that many countries in the region view the world from a more complex set of lenses, and not just the black-and-white perspective offered by the Americans. White explains that unlike the situation with the Soviets, many Asia-Pacific countries “have much to gain from China economically, and little to fear politically”.

Kindle version

Indeed, many Americans may think that preventing China from disrupting the regional order is beneficial not only in securing their own interests, but also those of the entire region (how noble..!).  However, as White argues, the Chinese see “a parallel, but opposite symmetry”.  They believe that China is seeking to remedy the long injustices that have been dealt to them, especially by foreign powers, both western and Asian.  Therefore, any power that intends to preserve the status quo regional order is in fact perpetuating these injustices.  Not only for the Chinese, but also for the other Asia-Pacific countries that have not entirely benefitted from the US’s regional dominance.

What White proposes is a new concert of Asia, which is loosely modeled on the Concert of Europe that existed between 1815 and 1914.  Admittedly, the Concert of Europe was not perfect.  There was still conflict during those times, including the war for German unification.  Worse of all, the regional order then ended in a devastating bang: the First World War.  However, as a whole, conflicts among Great Powers were avoided because each Great Power recognized that they must not seek dominance over the entire region.  And most importantly, during that period, Europe experienced a massive growth in the economic, social, and political fields.

The Asian version of this concert would have four “Great Powers” as the prime movers of the region: the US, China, Japan, and India.  Then there would be “middle powers” such as South Korea, Vietnam, and Indonesia (surprisingly, White didn’t mention anything about Australia) completing the hierarchy of power.  White goes on to argue that Indonesia, if it continues to grow the way it has, has every potential to end up as an additional “true” Great Power some time down the line. 

The rules of this concert sound simple:

First, each power must accept the legitimacy of the other power’s political system.  In other words, for the Americans, no more trying to cause (or make appear as though there are) domestic instabilities in China. 

Second, by agreeing to disagree, each power must be willing to make concessions in order to achieve resolutions through peaceful negotiations.

Third, each power must allow the others to build up their armaments, and allow the use of them if there are forces challenging their status as a “great power”.

And fourth, the powers must be able to develop a “code of conduct” that would “govern” their interactions with one another.

Of course, this perspective is far from perfect.  In fact, it has many holes.  For one, as an Indonesian, I would yell out: “Where’s Indonesia in all of this?”  Indonesia may not have the many of capacities owned by the Chinese or the Americans.  But we are the largest country and economy in Southeast Asia, and a leader in ASEAN.  In fact, I’ll yell out again: “What will happen to ASEAN and its regional architecture then?”

In this regard, White may have not sold me entirely on his idea.  But one thing that I do appreciate is his willingness to go outside of the box and propose an alternative to the rut that we are presently in.  I feel that there must be more than two choices to deal with China.  Choices other than confronting China head-on OR appeasing China’s rise to regional dominance.  There must be.  And while the argument proposed in this book may not be entirely convincing, it does present us with some food for thought, and importantly, stimuli for future thinking on the topic of China-US rivalry.

Personally, I believe that Indonesia is a middle power, for now, and maybe even in the long run.  However, that should not relegate its participation in the region (or even the “Concert of Asia”) to insignificance.  Maybe there should be analyses of what a middle power status could truly mean in a “Concert of Asia”.  On what counts as a middle power.  Maybe then I would be more willing to explore further this proposal. 

Time may not be on our side, as White says.  If China’s power keep on growing the way it is doing now, then its economy would be bigger than the US’ and its military more capable of keeping up with the Americans’.  Therefore, it is in the US’ interests to negotiate a new relationship with China, before the power balance further shift in China’s way.  In this regard, the urgency of this process is also in the interest of other countries in the region, including Indonesia.